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Estimates of the reproduction ratio from epidemic surveillance may be biased in spatially structured populations - Nature Physics

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Estimates of the reproduction ratio from epidemic surveillance may be biased in spatially structured populations - Nature Physics

Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial for projecting the evolution of an infectious disease epidemic and for guiding the public health response. Here we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data can be inaccurate if the population comprises spatially distinct communities, as the space–mobility interplay may hide the true evolution of the epidemic from surveillance data.

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Estimates of the reproduction ratio from epidemic surveillance may be biased in spatially structured populations - Nature Physics

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Estimates of the reproduction ratio from epidemic surveillance may be biased in spatially structured populations - Nature Physics

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