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Bayesianism and wishful thinking are compatible - Nature Human Behaviour

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Bayesianism and wishful thinking are compatible - Nature Human Behaviour

Bayesian principles show up across many domains of human cognition, but wishful thinking—where beliefs are updated in the direction of desired outcomes rather than what the evidence implies—seems to threaten the universality of Bayesian approaches to the mind. In this Article, we show that Bayesian optimality and wishful thinking are, despite first appearances, compatible.

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Bayesianism and wishful thinking are compatible - Nature Human Behaviour

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Bayesianism and wishful thinking are compatible - Nature Human Behaviour

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